Trends of precipitation and air temperature in Northern California under SRES scenarios

S. Jang, S. Kure, N. Ohara, M. L. Kavvas, G. Matanga, K. Nelson

    研究成果: Conference contribution

    3 被引用数 (Scopus)

    抄録

    In this study, recent precipitation trends based on CCSM3-based MM5 simulations were investigated against PRISM-based precipitation for 11 years from water year 2000 to water year 2010 for 8 watersheds in Northern California. Six precipitation projections (A1B1, A2, B1, A1FI, Ensemble1 and Ensemble2) were used for this study. In general, the case of Ensemble2 shows the most realistic trends against PRISM precipitation, especially for last 5 years, and is similar to PRISM in total volume of precipitation for 11 years. However, the case of A1FI also shows the realistic trends in mountainous watersheds (UFRW, ARW and YBW). It means that the precipitation under A1FI scenario is also important for future climate change impact study. Less precipitation was found under A1B and A1FI scenarios and more precipitation was found under A2 scenario. Although precipitation under B1 scenario is realistic compared to other scenarios (A1B, A2 and A1FI), the most realistic scenario is Ensemble2 (ensemble average of 4 scenarios). However, it was found that the precipitation difference against PRISM precipitation is locally different for all scenarios. Through the analyses for the extreme precipitation between the control run for 20 th century and the projections for 21 st century under CCSM3 gas emission scenarios, the extreme precipitation not only under A1B, A2 and B1 but also under A1FI scenario was much frequently found than historical period. It means that the A1FI scenario is also important to assess the future climate change impacts not only for water resources but also extreme floods.

    本文言語English
    ホスト出版物のタイトルWorld Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2012
    ホスト出版物のサブタイトルCrossing Boundaries, Proceedings of the 2012 Congress
    ページ2022-2029
    ページ数8
    DOI
    出版ステータスPublished - 2012 9 17
    イベントWorld Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2012: Crossing Boundaries - Albuquerque, NM, United States
    継続期間: 2012 5 202012 5 24

    出版物シリーズ

    名前World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2012: Crossing Boundaries, Proceedings of the 2012 Congress

    Other

    OtherWorld Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2012: Crossing Boundaries
    国/地域United States
    CityAlbuquerque, NM
    Period12/5/2012/5/24

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • 水の科学と技術

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