The real-time traffic state estimation we propose uses a state-space model considering the variability of the fundamental diagram (FD) and sensing data. Serious congestion was caused by vehicle evacuation in many Sanriku coast cities following the great East Japan earthquake on March 11, 2011. Many of the vehicles in these congested queues were caught in the enormous tsunami after the earthquake . Safe, efficient evacuation and rescue and restoration require that dynamic traffic states be monitored in real time especially in natural disasters. Variational theory (VT) based on kinematic wave theory is used for the system model, with probe vehicle and traffic detector data used to for measurement data. Our proposal agrees better with simulated benchmark traffic states than deterministic VT results do.
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