Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis and risk to coastal populations in Thailand

    研究成果: Article査読

    16 被引用数 (Scopus)


    The study of tsunami hazards in Thailand has been an ongoing topic of research. However, the hazards from tsunami sources based on probabilistic study and population risk are still unclear. In this study, potential tsunami sources along rupture zones were selected. A series of far-field tsunami simulations were performed with scaled fault parameters based on fault lengths from 100-600 km. The results show that within a few centuries, the maximum tsunami height could be 2-5 m at the west coast and less than 2 m at the east coast. The potential tsunami exposure (PTE) of populations in an estimated inundation zone was calculated using global population data in relation to tsunami height. The results show that much attention should be paid to fault ruptures longer than 300 km (≈ 8.5 moment magnitude, M w) that originate from 4°-6°N and 14°-17°N for the Sumatra subduction zone and the Manila trench, respectively. A quarter of a million people are at risk of exposure to a maximum 9 m tsunami height after 100 min of the arrival of the first wave at the Andaman coast. One million people near the Gulf of Thailand are at risk of a tsunami height less than 3 m after 9 hr.

    ジャーナルJournal of Earthquake and Tsunami
    出版ステータスPublished - 2012 6

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • 海洋学
    • 地盤工学および土木地質学
    • 地球物理学


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