Probabilistic approach for evaluating the capacity value of intermittent generation

Several approaches have been proposed for evaluating the capacity value of intermittent generation. In this paper, we assume that the uncertainty included in demand, existing generation, and intermittent generation, can be treated by means of a normal distribution model. Using a newly developed approximation method similar to the Garver approximation, and the Z-stochastic approach, the effective load carrying capability method is comprehensively surveyed. The percentile method adopted in the higher demand level is also discussed in connection with the probabilistic properties of intermittent generation. Numerical examples and a simulation illustrating the probabilistic approach are included.