Heterogeneity of deterioration processes as a factor in statistical deterioration prediction of tunnel luminaires

Satoshi Hirakawa, Daijiro Mizutani, Kiyoyuki Kaito

研究成果: Article査読

抄録

A method for predicting statistical deterioration using visual inspection data for tunnel luminaires has been developed. The method uses the mixed Markov deterioration hazard model to first calculate the expected deterioration path and expected lifespan of luminaires on the basis of the statistical analysis of deterioration factors and then to estimate the deterioration path on the basis of the heterogeneity of the deterioration process of each luminaire or group of luminaires. The hierarchical Bayesian estimation method is suggested as a concrete model estimation method. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, empirical analysis was carried out using the visual inspection data for 10,584 luminaires located in 11 tunnels. The deterioration process depended significantly on the tunnel grade and the distance from the tunnel entrance. The expected lifespan of the luminaires was about 13.6 years and varied by about 4.3 years in accordance with the above factors. The expected lifespan of the luminaires varied from 6.9 to 17.5 years in accordance with the heterogeneity of each tunnel.

本文言語English
ページ(範囲)706-714
ページ数9
ジャーナルJournal of the Illuminating Engineering Institute of Japan (Shomei Gakkai Shi)
97
11
DOI
出版ステータスPublished - 2013
外部発表はい

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • 電子工学および電気工学

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