Heightened odds of large earthquakes near Istanbul: An interaction-based probability calculation

Tom Parsons, Shinji Toda, Ross S. Stein, Aykut Barka, James H. Dieterich

研究成果: Article査読

410 被引用数 (Scopus)

抄録

We calculate the probability of strong shaking in Istanbul, an urban center of 10 million people, from the description of earthquakes on the North Anatolian fault system in the Marmara Sea during the past 500 years and test the resulting catalog against the frequency of damage in Istanbul during the preceding millennium, departing from current practice, we include the time- dependent effect of stress transferred by the 1999 moment magnitude M = 7.4 Izmit earthquake to faults nearer to Istanbul. We find a 62 ± 15% probability (one standard deviation) of strong shaking during the next 30 years and 32 ± 12% during the next decade.

本文言語English
ページ(範囲)661-665
ページ数5
ジャーナルScience
288
5466
DOI
出版ステータスPublished - 2000 4月 28
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ASJC Scopus subject areas

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