Future fluvial flood risks in Central Vietnam assessed using global super-high-resolution climate model output

Do Hoai Nam, K. Udo, A. Mano

研究成果: Article査読

6 被引用数 (Scopus)

抄録

Fluvial flood risks are explored at the Vu Gia-Thu Bon River system in Central Vietnam based on a coupled hydrological-hydraulic model combined with design storm hyetographs constructed based on heavy rainfall downscaled from the output of a state-of-the-art super-high-resolution (20-km mesh) global climate model simulated under greenhouse gas emission scenario A1B. The results indicate that intensified rainfall due to future climate changes (2075-2099) will lead to higher flood risks in the fluvial plains, especially in the lower areas of the river system. The potential extent of inundation caused by a 25-year return period flood in future climate patterns will increase by approximately 150% compared with those produced by the most severe flood in the present-day climate (1979-2003). Moreover, the flood risks induced by a 10-year return period flood tend to be slightly more severe than that of the 25-year return period in the present-day climate.

本文言語English
ページ(範囲)276-288
ページ数13
ジャーナルJournal of Flood Risk Management
8
3
DOI
出版ステータスPublished - 2015 9 1

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Environmental Engineering
  • Geography, Planning and Development
  • Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality
  • Water Science and Technology

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