Assessment of future flood intensification in Central Vietnam using a super-high-resolution climate model output

Do Hoai Nam, Keiko Udo, Akira Mano

研究成果: Article

4 引用 (Scopus)

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This paper presents an assessment of the changes in future floods. The ranked area-average heavy daily rainfall amounts simulated by a super-high-resolution (20 km mesh) global climate model output are corrected with consideration of the effects of the topography on heavy rainfall patterns and used as a basis to model design storm hyetographs. The rainfall data are then used as the input for a nearly calibration-free parameter rainfall-runoff model to simulate floods in the future climate (2075-2099) at the Upper Thu Bon River basin in Central Vietnam. The results show that although the future mean annual rainfall will not be considerably different compared to the present-day climate (1979-2003), extreme rainfall is projected to increase vigorously, leading to a similar order of intensification of future floods. It is very likely that the flood peak with a 25-year recurrence will increase approximately 42% relative to the present-day climate. The occurrence of floods with a 10-year recurrence may exceed those with a 25-year recurrence in the present-day climate. The projection results also exhibit insignificant uncertainties caused by an artificial neural network-based bias correction model. Additionally, the presented bias correction model shows advantages over a simple climatology scaling method.

元の言語English
ページ(範囲)373-389
ページ数17
ジャーナルJournal of Water and Climate Change
4
発行部数4
DOI
出版物ステータスPublished - 2013 12 1

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Global and Planetary Change
  • Water Science and Technology
  • Atmospheric Science
  • Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law

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