Are consumer sentiments useful in Japan? An application of a new market-timing test

Y. Tsuchiya

研究成果: Article査読

1 被引用数 (Scopus)

抄録

We investigate whether consumer sentiment in Japan is a useful predictor of household consumption, durable goods consumption and the CPI using a recently developed market-timing test. We find that consumer sentiment is not useful for predicting an increase/decrease in household consumption, durable goods consumption, and CPI. The findings suggest that policy-makers may have difficulties obtaining useful qualitative information from consumers. However, using estimated threshold values for the increase/decrease, consumer sentiment became a useful predictor of durable goods consumption and CPI. This suggests that estimating relevant thresholds could enhance the use of directional analysis.

本文言語English
ページ(範囲)356-359
ページ数4
ジャーナルApplied Economics Letters
21
5
DOI
出版ステータスPublished - 2014
外部発表はい

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • 経済学、計量経済学

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