Uncertainty on a short-term flood forecast with rainfall-runoff model

Hadi Kardhana, Akira Mano

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

Precipitation forecast has been become a useful asset for flood prediction using rainfall-runoff model. An uncertainty that appears on the forecast affects accuracy of flood prediction, added to that is which possessed in the rainfall-runoff model. The case is in Shichikashuku Dam basin in Japan. The precipitation forecast is a product of short range forecast of Japan operational numerical weather prediction based on Mesoscale Model (MSM) and Regional Scale Model (RSM). The rainfall-runoff model based on distributed tank model. This research estimates total uncertainty by quantifying mean error and standard deviation on the precipitation and discharge forecast. The result has shown that the precipitation forecast is more uncertain than discharge s. Uncertainty is significantly increased after twelve hour and draws a common characteristic between both models.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationAdvances in Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering - Proceedings of 16th IAHR-APD Congress and 3rd Symposium of IAHR-ISHS
PublisherSpringer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
Pages88-92
Number of pages5
ISBN (Print)9783540894643
Publication statusPublished - 2009 Jan 1
Event16th Congress of Asia and Pacific Division of International Association of Hydraulic Engineering and Research, APD 2008 and the 3rd IAHR International Symposium on Hydraulic Structures, ISHS 2008 - Nanjing, China
Duration: 2008 Oct 202008 Oct 23

Publication series

NameAdvances in Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering - Proceedings of 16th IAHR-APD Congress and 3rd Symposium of IAHR-ISHS

Other

Other16th Congress of Asia and Pacific Division of International Association of Hydraulic Engineering and Research, APD 2008 and the 3rd IAHR International Symposium on Hydraulic Structures, ISHS 2008
CountryChina
CityNanjing
Period08/10/2008/10/23

Keywords

  • Flood forecast
  • Precipitation forecast
  • Runoff model
  • Uncertainty

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Civil and Structural Engineering

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