Trajectories of Distress Following the Great East Japan Earthquake: A Multiwave Prospective Study

The March 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear leak were complex traumas. We examined psychological distress in the years following the earthquake using growth mixture modeling to classify responses from 2,599 linked respondents (2012–2016). We identified four classes of trajectories following the disaster: resilient (76% of respondents), delayed distress (8%), recovery (8%), and chronic distress (7%). Compared with the resilient class, other class members were less likely to be female and had less social support. Survivors in the recovery group were more likely to live in prefabricated housing. Although distress has decreased over time, specific populations continue to require targeted intervention.