OBJECTIVE: To develop a prediction model for clinical outcomes after unilateral adrenalectomy for unilateral primary aldosteronism. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: Unilateral primary aldosteronism is the most common surgically curable form of endocrine hypertension. Surgical resection of the dominant overactive adrenal in unilateral primary aldosteronism results in complete clinical success with resolution of hypertension without antihypertensive medication in less than half of patients with a wide between-center variability. METHODS: A linear discriminant analysis model was built using data of 380 patients treated by adrenalectomy for unilateral primary aldosteronism to classify postsurgical clinical outcomes. The total cohort was then randomly divided into training (280 patients) and test (100 patients) datasets to create and validate a score system to predict clinical outcomes. An online tool (Primary Aldosteronism Surgical Outcome predictor) was developed to facilitate the use of the predictive score. RESULTS: Six presurgical factors associated with complete clinical success (known duration of hypertension, sex, antihypertensive medication dosage, body mass index, target organ damage, and size of largest nodule at imaging) were selected based on classification performance in the linear discriminant analysis model. A 25-point predictive score was built with an optimal cut-off of greater than 16 points (accuracy of prediction = 79.2%; specificity = 84.4%; sensitivity = 71.3%) with an area under the curve of 0.839. CONCLUSIONS: The predictive score and the primary aldosteronism surgical outcome predictor can be used in a clinical setting to differentiate patients who are likely to be clinically cured after surgery from those who will need continuous surveillance after surgery due to persistent hypertension.
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