The 2011 M = 9.0 Tohoku oki earthquake more than doubled the probability of large shocks beneath Tokyo

Shinji Toda, Ross S. Stein

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

    26 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    The Kanto seismic corridor surrounding Tokyo has hosted four to five M ≥ 7 earthquakes in the past 400 years. Immediately after the Tohoku earthquake, the seismicity rate in the corridor jumped 10-fold, while the rate of normal focal mechanisms dropped in half. The seismicity rate decayed for 6-12 months, after which it steadied at three times the pre-Tohoku rate. The seismicity rate jump and decay to a new rate, as well as the focal mechanism change, can be explained by the static stress imparted by the Tohoku rupture and postseismic creep to Kanto faults. We therefore fit the seismicity observations to a rate/state Coulomb model, which we use to forecast the time-dependent probability of large earthquakes in the Kanto seismic corridor. We estimate a 17% probability of a M ≥ 7.0 shock over the 5 year prospective period 11 March 2013 to 10 March 2018, two-and-a-half times the probability had the Tohoku earthquake not struck.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)2562-2566
    Number of pages5
    JournalGeophysical Research Letters
    Volume40
    Issue number11
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2013 Jun 16

    Keywords

    • Coulomb stress
    • Tohoku-oki earthquake
    • aftershocks
    • seismicity

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • Geophysics
    • Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)

    Fingerprint

    Dive into the research topics of 'The 2011 M = 9.0 Tohoku oki earthquake more than doubled the probability of large shocks beneath Tokyo'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

    Cite this