Structural breaks in the real exchange rate and real interest rate relationship

Joseph P. Byrne, Jun Nagayasu

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

6 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

In this paper we empirically examine the relationship between the real exchange rate and the real interest rate differential using recent econometric methods robust to potential structural breaks. Generally, our study provides evidence of this relationship in the long-run context. More specifically, we first focus on the UK-US relationship, and interestingly find limited evidence of this long-run relationship using traditional methods. But when an approach robust to structural breaks is employed, we find evidence that the real interest rate differential is an important determinant of the real exchange rate. Secondly, in order to investigate the relevance of structural shifts in a more global context, we replicate our analysis for a number of other exchange rates. While providing evidence of this long-run relationship, European data suggest that the presence of structural breaks is not very common across countries and is indeed country-specific.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)138-151
Number of pages14
JournalGlobal Finance Journal
Volume21
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2010 Aug 2
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Nonstationarity
  • Real exchange rate
  • Real interest rate differential
  • Structural breaks
  • Trace tests

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Finance
  • Economics and Econometrics

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