Stress-based aftershock forecasts made within 24 h postmain shock: Expected north San Francisco Bay area seismicity changes after the 2014 M = 6.0 West Napa earthquake

Tom Parsons, Margaret Segou, Volkan Sevilgen, Kevin Milner, Edward Field, Shinji Toda, Ross S. Stein

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

    12 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    We calculate stress changes resulting from the M = 6.0 West Napa earthquake on north San Francisco Bay area faults. The earthquake ruptured within a series of long faults that pose significant hazard to the Bay area, and we are thus concerned with potential increases in the probability of a large earthquake through stress transfer. We conduct this exercise as a prospective test because the skill of stress-based aftershock forecasting methodology is inconclusive. We apply three methods: (1) generalized mapping of regional Coulomb stress change, (2) stress changes resolved on Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast faults, and (3) a mapped rate/state aftershock forecast. All calculations were completed within 24 h after the main shock and were made without benefit of known aftershocks, which will be used to evaluative the prospective forecast. All methods suggest that we should expect heightened seismicity on parts of the southern Rodgers Creek, northern Hayward, and Green Valley faults. Key Points The West Napa earthquake changed stress on Bay Area faultsRapid stress-based earthquake forecasts for evaluating methodsForecasts will be evaluated against the actual aftershock patterns

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)8792-8799
    Number of pages8
    JournalGeophysical Research Letters
    Volume41
    Issue number24
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2014 Dec 28

    Keywords

    • earthquake interactions
    • prospective stress-based forecasts

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • Geophysics
    • Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)

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