Solar irradiance forecasts by mesoscale numerical weather prediction models with different horizontal resolutions

Hideaki Ohtake, Fumichika Uno, Takashi Oozeki, Syugo Hayashi, Junshi Ito, Akihiro Hashimoto, Hiromasa Yoshimura, Yoshinori Yamada

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

This study examines the performance of radiation processes (shortwave and longwave radiations) using numerical weather prediction models (NWPs). NWP were calculated using four different horizontal resolutions (5, 2 and 1 km, and 500 m). Validation results on solar irradiance simulations with a horizontal resolution of 500 m indicated positive biases for direct normal irradiance dominate for the period from 09 JST (Japan Standard Time) to 15 JST. On the other hand, after 15 JST, negative biases were found. For diffiused irradiance, weak negative biases were found. Validation results on upward longwave radiation found systematic negative biases of surface temperature (corresponding to approximately-2K for summer and approximately -1 K for winter). Downward longwave radiation tended to be weak negative biases during both summer and winter. Frequency of solar irradiance suggested that the frequency of rapid variations of solar irradiance (ramp rates) from the NWP were less than those observed. Generally, GHI distributions between the four different horizontal resolutions resembled each other, although horizontal resolutions also became finer.

Original languageEnglish
Article number1374
JournalEnergies
Volume12
Issue number7
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2019
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Different horizontal resolution
  • Forecast errors
  • Numerical weather prediction model
  • Ramp rates
  • Solar irradiance forecasts
  • Validation

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
  • Energy Engineering and Power Technology
  • Energy (miscellaneous)
  • Control and Optimization
  • Electrical and Electronic Engineering

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