Sensitivity analysis to evaluate the effect of land use change on discharge rate

F. A. Soria, M. Sawamoto, So Kazama

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

Potential effects of land use change on total discharge are assessed by evaluating the spatial trends of sensitivity indices. Given the uncertainty about future land use scenarios, a statistical approach was considered. 11 land use types were randomly combined into 264 scenarios, a distributed rainfall-runoff model was applied in Central Bolivia, and the outputs generated were used to estimate sensitivity indices by applying Monte Carlo based Sobol' method. Our results showed that variances observed during peak and recession flows are more likely to be influenced by land use units close to the outlet; land use units located far from the main channel were observed to be influential on the variance of time steps previous to event occurrence.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationFrom Headwaters to the Ocean
Subtitle of host publicationHydrological Changes and Watershed Management - Proc. of the International Conference on Hydrological Changes and Management from Headwaters to the Ocean, HYDROCHAN 2008
Pages203-208
Number of pages6
Publication statusPublished - 2009 Dec 1
EventInternational Conference on Hydrological Changes and Management from Headwaters to the Ocean, HYDROCHANGE 2008 - Kyoto, Japan
Duration: 2008 Oct 12008 Oct 3

Other

OtherInternational Conference on Hydrological Changes and Management from Headwaters to the Ocean, HYDROCHANGE 2008
CountryJapan
CityKyoto
Period08/10/108/10/3

Keywords

  • Monte Carlo experiments
  • Sensitivity indices

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Geochemistry and Petrology
  • Ocean Engineering
  • Water Science and Technology

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  • Cite this

    Soria, F. A., Sawamoto, M., & Kazama, S. (2009). Sensitivity analysis to evaluate the effect of land use change on discharge rate. In From Headwaters to the Ocean: Hydrological Changes and Watershed Management - Proc. of the International Conference on Hydrological Changes and Management from Headwaters to the Ocean, HYDROCHAN 2008 (pp. 203-208)