Selection of deterioration factors in RC slab using Markov deterioration hazard model

D. Mizutani, K. Kaito

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

The deterioration process of infrastructure has the various uncertainties. Therefore, the deterioration prediction of infrastructure was difficult conventionally. However, by the development of the Markov deterioration hazard model, the technology of statistical deterioration prediction was improved dramatically. By Markov deterioration hazard model, the deterioration prediction in consideration of various deterioration factors is possible. In this study, the authors focus on the deterioration of RC slabs in urban expressway and clarify its deterioration process by Markov deterioration hazard model. The detailed inspection data is distinctive of this study, and the RC slabs are inspected not per span but per panel. The 15 kinds of structural and environmental conditions are utilized as candidates for the characteristic variables. Through the comparison of the t-value and AIC, the authors found that the characteristic variable "whether or not construction joint" has the most explanatory power statistically. By estimating the Markov deterioration hazard model, Markov transition probability to represent the deterioration process can be obtained. Then, employing Monte Carlo simulation, life expectancies of each RC slab can be calculated per span. Finally, the authors quantitatively represent the difference of life expectancies of RC slabs per span corresponding to the change of RC slab's composition such as the number of panels in one span, the number of panels of construction joint and the change of other characteristic variables.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationBridge Maintenance, Safety, Management and Life Extension - Proceedings of the 7th International Conference of Bridge Maintenance, Safety and Management, IABMAS 2014
PublisherTaylor and Francis - Balkema
Pages2158-2166
Number of pages9
ISBN (Print)9781138001039
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2014
Externally publishedYes
Event7th International Conference on Bridge Maintenance, Safety and Management, IABMAS 2014 - Shanghai, China
Duration: 2014 Jul 72014 Jul 11

Publication series

NameBridge Maintenance, Safety, Management and Life Extension - Proceedings of the 7th International Conference of Bridge Maintenance, Safety and Management, IABMAS 2014

Other

Other7th International Conference on Bridge Maintenance, Safety and Management, IABMAS 2014
CountryChina
CityShanghai
Period14/7/714/7/11

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Civil and Structural Engineering
  • Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality

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