Risk stratification by 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure and estimated glomerular filtration rate in 5322 subjects from 11 populations

José Boggia, Lutgarde Thijs, Yan Li, Tine W. Hansen, Masahiro Kikuya, Kristina Björklund-Bodegård, Takayoshi Ohkubo, Jørgen Jeppesen, Christian Torp-Pedersen, Eamon Dolan, Tatiana Kuznetsova, Katarzyna Stolarz-Skrzypek, Valérie Tikhonoff, Sofia Malyutina, Edoardo Casiglia, Yuri Nikitin, Lars Lind, Emma Schwedt, Edgardo Sandoya, Kalina Kawecka-JaszczJan Filipovský, Yutaka Imai, Jiguang Wang, Hans Ibsen, Eoin O'Brien, Jan A. Staessen

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

12 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

No previous study addressed whether in the general population estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR [Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration formula]) adds to the prediction of cardiovascular outcome over and beyond ambulatory blood pressure. We recorded health outcomes in 5322 subjects (median age, 51.8 years; 43.1% women) randomly recruited from 11 populations, who had baseline measurements of 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure (ABP24) and eGFR. We computed hazard ratios using multivariable-adjusted Cox regression. Median follow-up was 9.3 years. In fully adjusted models, which included both ABP24 and eGFR, ABP24 predicted (P≤0.008) both total (513 deaths) and cardiovascular (206) mortality; eGFR only predicted cardiovascular mortality (P=0.012). Furthermore, ABP24 predicted (P≤0.0056) fatal combined with nonfatal events as a result of all cardiovascular causes (555 events), cardiac disease (335 events), or stroke (218 events), whereas eGFR only predicted the composite cardiovascular end point and stroke (P≤0.035). The interaction terms between ABP24 and eGFR were all nonsignificant (P=0.082). For cardiovascular mortality, the composite cardiovascular end point, and stroke, ABP24 added 0.35%, 1.17%, and 1.00% to the risk already explained by cohort, sex, age, body mass index, smoking and drinking, previous cardiovascular disease, diabetes mellitus, and antihypertensive drug treatment. Adding eGFR explained an additional 0.13%, 0.09%, and 0.14%, respectively. Sensitivity analyses stratified for ethnicity, sex, and the presence of hypertension or chronic kidney disease (eGFR <60 mL/min per 1.73 m) were confirmatory. In conclusion, in the general population, eGFR predicts fewer end points than ABP24. Relative to ABP24, eGFR is as an additive, not a multiplicative, risk factor and refines risk stratification 2-to 14-fold less.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)18-26
Number of pages9
JournalHypertension
Volume61
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2013 Jan

Keywords

  • ambulatory blood pressure
  • cardiovascular risk factors
  • epidemiology
  • population science
  • renal function

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Internal Medicine

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