Risk assessment for optimum low-voltage distribution facilities constructed by using genetic algorithms

Daisuke Iioka, Takanori Narita, Yasunobu Yokomizu, Toshiro Matsumura, Norio Hatakeyama

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

The influences of uncertainty of the load growth rate and interest rate on the total cost of low-voltage distribution facilities was investigated. We assumed that the total cost was composed of the initial construction cost, the improvement cost, and the cost of power loss. We also assumed that the distribution facilities were operated for 30 years. Genetic algorithms were used to determine how to construct cost-effective distribution facilities that did not compromise power quality. Two investment methods were compared: one in which the utility cut down the initial construction cost and improves the initial facilities along with the load growth, and one in which the utility bears the large initial cost without the improvement cost. It was found that the lower cost method depends on the load growth rate and the interest rate. It was also found that the influence of uncertainty in the load growth rate increases with an increase in the differential between the actual load growth rate and the expected one.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)10-19
Number of pages10
JournalElectrical Engineering in Japan (English translation of Denki Gakkai Ronbunshi)
Volume172
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2010 Jul 30
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Genetic algorithm
  • Low-voltage distribution facility
  • Risk assessment

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Energy Engineering and Power Technology
  • Electrical and Electronic Engineering

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