Results of PRospect trial to Elucidate the utility of EchocarDiography-based Cardiac ouTput in acute heart failure (PREDICT)

Background: The predictive value of echocardiographic parameters for early worsening heart failure (WHF), worsening of symptoms of heart failure requiring intensification of therapy during an admission for acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF), has not been elucidated. Methods: Sixteen centers in Japan prospectively enrolled 303 ADHF hospitalized patients who did not receive positive inotropic agents as an initial therapy. Physical and Doppler echocardiographic examinations were performed before the initial therapy and the association of low output findings and occurrence of early WHF were tested. Results: Early WHF occurred in 63 patients with a median duration of 6 (IQR: 2–23) hours from the administration of the initial therapy. In patients with left ventricular (LV) ejection fraction <40% (N = 153), echocardiographic stroke volume index, and cardiac index showed greater c-index [95% confidence interval, 0.71 (0.61–0.79) and 0.72 (0.63–0.80), respectively] compared to single low perfusion finding (symptomatic hypotension, reduced pulse pressure, and impaired mentation) other than cool extremities. When physical findings were combined (low perfusion score), the predictive ability improved to the similar levels of echocardiographic LV output parameters [c-index: 0.69 (0.60–0.76)]. However, addition of cardiac index significantly improved the prognostic ability when added to low perfusion score [0.82 (0.74–0.87), p < 0.001]. In contrast, in patients with LV ejection fraction ≥40% (N = 150), low perfusion score, rather than LV output parameters, was predictive of early WHF [c-index: 0.73 (0.56–0.85)]. Conclusions: We demonstrated the predictive value of echocardiographic LV output indices for early WHF in ADHF patients with LV systolic dysfunction. These data support the motivation for routine use of echocardiography for initial assessment of ADHF.