TY - JOUR
T1 - Optimal Control Strategy for Relief Supply Considering Information and Demand Uncertainty after a Major Disaster
AU - Kawase, Riki
AU - Urata, Junji
AU - Iryo, Takamasa
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2019, IFAC (International Federation of Automatic Control) Hosting by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Copyright:
Copyright 2019 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
PY - 2019
Y1 - 2019
N2 - Humanitarian logistics is important for minimizing the damage after a disaster. In Japan, based on past disasters, three empirical control strategies related to humanitarian logistics have been proposed: two relief transportation strategies, and an information strategy without ICT. This paper reveals the mathematical properties of these empirical strategies using an analytic model with closed-form solution. Our approach is based on the stochastic optimal control theory that has never been applied for analyzing humanitarian logistics. Specifically, we formulate the inventory distribution problem considering demand uncertainty as a stochastic optimal control problem with the objectives of minimizing inventory holding and handling costs. Additionally, we consider information uncertainty after a disaster using the Bayesian updating process. This process, by updating at different intervals among depots, models information asynchrony caused by not using ICT. Finally, we analyze the optimal control strategy to reveal the mathematical properties of three empirical strategies. Our results clarify that the two empirical transportation strategies are effective. However, we suggest that in the empirical information strategy without ICT the information paradox, wherein the system gets worse by using information, may occur.
AB - Humanitarian logistics is important for minimizing the damage after a disaster. In Japan, based on past disasters, three empirical control strategies related to humanitarian logistics have been proposed: two relief transportation strategies, and an information strategy without ICT. This paper reveals the mathematical properties of these empirical strategies using an analytic model with closed-form solution. Our approach is based on the stochastic optimal control theory that has never been applied for analyzing humanitarian logistics. Specifically, we formulate the inventory distribution problem considering demand uncertainty as a stochastic optimal control problem with the objectives of minimizing inventory holding and handling costs. Additionally, we consider information uncertainty after a disaster using the Bayesian updating process. This process, by updating at different intervals among depots, models information asynchrony caused by not using ICT. Finally, we analyze the optimal control strategy to reveal the mathematical properties of three empirical strategies. Our results clarify that the two empirical transportation strategies are effective. However, we suggest that in the empirical information strategy without ICT the information paradox, wherein the system gets worse by using information, may occur.
KW - Bullwhip effect
KW - Humanitarian logistics
KW - Information systems
KW - Optimal control
KW - Stochastic control
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85076257034&partnerID=8YFLogxK
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U2 - 10.1016/j.ifacol.2019.08.144
DO - 10.1016/j.ifacol.2019.08.144
M3 - Conference article
AN - SCOPUS:85076257034
VL - 52
SP - 31
EP - 38
JO - IFAC-PapersOnLine
JF - IFAC-PapersOnLine
SN - 2405-8963
IS - 6
T2 - IFAC Workshop on Control of Transportation Systems, WCTS 2019
Y2 - 30 June 2019 through 1 July 2019
ER -