Normative behaviour-based first-best analysis for disaster evacuation

Masao Kuwahara, Takeshi Ohata, Yukie Oishi

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)


The most uncertain aspect in designing an evacuation plan is the evacuation behaviours of individuals in the immediate aftermath of a natural disaster. Hence, this study attempts to reduce behavioural uncertainty and proposes a first-best analysis assuming that all evacuees perfectly follow the best evacuation strategy that is termed as normative behaviour. Although the first-best performance may not be practical or feasible, it clearly shows the benchmark performance of evacuation planning. This type of a benchmark is quite useful to understand the relative performances of several more practical scenarios. The results indicate that the first-best strategy is obtained by solving a Linear Programming in a time-dependent manner. Additionally, a practical solution algorithm is proposed based on the Lagrangian relaxation method. The method is then applied to the city of Ishinomaki, Japan, to confirm its computational feasibility.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)237-254
Number of pages18
JournalTransportmetrica B
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - 2019 Dec 23


  • Evacuation operation
  • dynamic network
  • liner programming
  • normative models

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Software
  • Modelling and Simulation
  • Transportation


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