TY - JOUR
T1 - Nonlinear time series analysis unravels underlying mechanisms of interspecific synchrony among foliage-feeding forest Lepidoptera species
AU - Kawatsu, Kazutaka
AU - Yamanaka, Takehiko
AU - Patoèka, Jan
AU - Liebhold, Andrew M.
N1 - Funding Information:
This work was supported by JSPS KAKENHI Grant Numbers 16H04846, 16K18625 and 18K14797 for K.K. and also 15H04613 for T.Y.; A.M.L. was supported by grant EVA4.0, No. CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_019/0000803 financed by OP RDE. This collaboration work started at the 32nd Annual Meeting of the Society of Population Ecology at Jozankei, Sapporo. We thank the organizing committee for giving us the great opportunity to achieve our integrated work. We also thank Marek Turcáni and Ulf Büntgen for assistance with data preparation.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2019 The Authors. Population Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of The Society of Population Ecology
PY - 2020/1/1
Y1 - 2020/1/1
N2 - Interspecific synchrony, that is, synchrony in population dynamics among sympatric populations of different species can arise via several possible mechanisms, including common environmental effects, direct interactions between species, and shared trophic interactions, so that distinguishing the relative importance of these causes can be challenging. In this study, to overcome this difficulty, we combine traditional correlation analysis with a novel framework of nonlinear time series analysis, empirical dynamic modeling (EDM). The EDM is an analytical framework to identify causal relationships and measure changing interaction strength from time series. We apply this approach to time series of sympatric foliage-feeding forest Lepidoptera species in the Slovak Republic and yearly mean temperature, precipitation and North Atlantic Oscillation Index. These Lepidoptera species include both free-feeding and leaf-roller larval life histories: the former are hypothesized to be more strongly affected by similar exogenous environments, while the latter are isolated from such pressures. Correlation analysis showed that interspecific synchrony is generally strongest between species within same feeding guild. In addition, the convergent cross mapping analysis detected causal effects of meteorological factors on most of the free-feeding species while such effects were not observed in the leaf-rolling species. However, there were fewer causal relationships among species. The multivariate S-map analysis showed that meteorological factors tend to affect similar free-feeding species that are synchronous with each other. These results indicate that shared meteorological factors are key drivers of interspecific synchrony among members of the free-feeding guild, but do not play the same role in synchronizing species within the leaf-roller guild.
AB - Interspecific synchrony, that is, synchrony in population dynamics among sympatric populations of different species can arise via several possible mechanisms, including common environmental effects, direct interactions between species, and shared trophic interactions, so that distinguishing the relative importance of these causes can be challenging. In this study, to overcome this difficulty, we combine traditional correlation analysis with a novel framework of nonlinear time series analysis, empirical dynamic modeling (EDM). The EDM is an analytical framework to identify causal relationships and measure changing interaction strength from time series. We apply this approach to time series of sympatric foliage-feeding forest Lepidoptera species in the Slovak Republic and yearly mean temperature, precipitation and North Atlantic Oscillation Index. These Lepidoptera species include both free-feeding and leaf-roller larval life histories: the former are hypothesized to be more strongly affected by similar exogenous environments, while the latter are isolated from such pressures. Correlation analysis showed that interspecific synchrony is generally strongest between species within same feeding guild. In addition, the convergent cross mapping analysis detected causal effects of meteorological factors on most of the free-feeding species while such effects were not observed in the leaf-rolling species. However, there were fewer causal relationships among species. The multivariate S-map analysis showed that meteorological factors tend to affect similar free-feeding species that are synchronous with each other. These results indicate that shared meteorological factors are key drivers of interspecific synchrony among members of the free-feeding guild, but do not play the same role in synchronizing species within the leaf-roller guild.
KW - Moran effect
KW - convergent cross mapping
KW - cross-correlation coefficient
KW - empirical dynamic modeling
KW - multivariate S-map
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U2 - 10.1002/1438-390X.12025
DO - 10.1002/1438-390X.12025
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85074810850
VL - 62
SP - 5
EP - 14
JO - Population Ecology
JF - Population Ecology
SN - 1438-3896
IS - 1
ER -