Monte Carlo experiments for uncertainty investigation of glacier melt discharge predictions through surface energy balance analysis

Freddy Soria, So Kazama

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

The spatial representativeness of point records is a concern in glacier discharge predictions. A Monte Carlo-based global sensitivity approach is used to investigate the predictive uncertainty in the net radiation (R n) as the major component driving glacier melt in the Bolivian Andes. The R n is inferred through the Surface and Energy Balance Algorithm, calibrated with point dry-season records monitored on a glacier's ablation area. High uncertainties are expected in the vicinity of the monitoring station (surface albedo (α) between 0.81 and 0.79, specific melt discharge (SMD) between 72 and 88 L s -1 km -2); smaller uncertainties are expected on the glacier boundaries (α between 0.10 and 0.08, SMD between 128 and 143 L s -1 km -2). Thus, with the incoming long wave radiation (R L↓) as the most sensitive model parameter, the spatial variability in α determines the spatial variability in the SMD predictive uncertainties.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationCold Regions Hydrology in a Changing Climate
Pages103-108
Number of pages6
Volume346
Publication statusPublished - 2011 Dec 1
EventSymposium H02 on Cold Regions Hydrology in a Changing Climate, Held During the 25th General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, IUGG 2011 - Melbourne, VIC, Australia
Duration: 2011 Jun 282011 Jul 7

Other

OtherSymposium H02 on Cold Regions Hydrology in a Changing Climate, Held During the 25th General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, IUGG 2011
CountryAustralia
CityMelbourne, VIC
Period11/6/2811/7/7

Keywords

  • Remote sensing
  • Sensitivity analysis
  • Tropical Andes

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)

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