Joint evaluation of the directional accuracy of federal budget forecasts

Yoichi Tsuchiya

doi:10.1080/13504851.2013.877562

Joint evaluation of the directional accuracy of federal budget forecasts

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Most research focused on deficit, revenue and outlay in budget forecasts has addressed these issues separately. In this study, we investigate changes in budget forecasts from the Congressional Budget Office, applying a recently developed market-timing test. We find that the combined forecasts of revenue and outlay are useful with a horizon of 8 months in predicting an increase/decrease, and useful with a horizon of up to 20 months in predicting an acceleration/deceleration in the deficit.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	582-585
Number of pages	4
Journal	Applied Economics Letters
Volume	21
Issue number	8
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2013.877562
Publication status	Published - 2014 May
Externally published	Yes

Keywords

directional analysis
forecast evaluation
government forecasts
market-timing test
nonparametric methods

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Economics and Econometrics

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Joint evaluation of the directional accuracy of federal budget forecasts

Abstract

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

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