TY - JOUR
T1 - Heightened odds of large earthquakes near Istanbul
T2 - An interaction-based probability calculation
AU - Parsons, Tom
AU - Toda, Shinji
AU - Stein, Ross S.
AU - Barka, Aykut
AU - Dieterich, James H.
N1 - Copyright:
Copyright 2004 Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam. All rights reserved.
PY - 2000/4/28
Y1 - 2000/4/28
N2 - We calculate the probability of strong shaking in Istanbul, an urban center of 10 million people, from the description of earthquakes on the North Anatolian fault system in the Marmara Sea during the past 500 years and test the resulting catalog against the frequency of damage in Istanbul during the preceding millennium, departing from current practice, we include the time- dependent effect of stress transferred by the 1999 moment magnitude M = 7.4 Izmit earthquake to faults nearer to Istanbul. We find a 62 ± 15% probability (one standard deviation) of strong shaking during the next 30 years and 32 ± 12% during the next decade.
AB - We calculate the probability of strong shaking in Istanbul, an urban center of 10 million people, from the description of earthquakes on the North Anatolian fault system in the Marmara Sea during the past 500 years and test the resulting catalog against the frequency of damage in Istanbul during the preceding millennium, departing from current practice, we include the time- dependent effect of stress transferred by the 1999 moment magnitude M = 7.4 Izmit earthquake to faults nearer to Istanbul. We find a 62 ± 15% probability (one standard deviation) of strong shaking during the next 30 years and 32 ± 12% during the next decade.
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U2 - 10.1126/science.288.5466.661
DO - 10.1126/science.288.5466.661
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:0034724954
VL - 288
SP - 661
EP - 665
JO - Science
JF - Science
SN - 0036-8075
IS - 5466
ER -