Future fluvial flood risks in Central Vietnam assessed using global super-high-resolution climate model output

Do Hoai Nam, K. Udo, Akira Mano

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

5 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Fluvial flood risks are explored at the Vu Gia-Thu Bon River system in Central Vietnam based on a coupled hydrological-hydraulic model combined with design storm hyetographs constructed based on heavy rainfall downscaled from the output of a state-of-the-art super-high-resolution (20-km mesh) global climate model simulated under greenhouse gas emission scenario A1B. The results indicate that intensified rainfall due to future climate changes (2075-2099) will lead to higher flood risks in the fluvial plains, especially in the lower areas of the river system. The potential extent of inundation caused by a 25-year return period flood in future climate patterns will increase by approximately 150% compared with those produced by the most severe flood in the present-day climate (1979-2003). Moreover, the flood risks induced by a 10-year return period flood tend to be slightly more severe than that of the 25-year return period in the present-day climate.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)276-288
Number of pages13
JournalJournal of Flood Risk Management
Volume8
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2015 Sep 1

Keywords

  • Downscaling
  • Rainfall and flood extremes
  • Super-high-resolution climate model

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Environmental Engineering
  • Geography, Planning and Development
  • Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality
  • Water Science and Technology

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