Forecasting Replacement Demand of Durable Goods and the Induced Secondary Material Flows: A Case Study of Automobiles

Shigemi Kagawa, Shinichiro Nakamura, Yasushi Kondo, Kazuyo Matsubae, Tetsuya Nagasaka

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

10 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Summary: The aim of this article is to propose a method for forecasting future secondary material flows by combining a product lifetime distribution analysis with a waste input-output analysis and present a simple case study of automobiles. The case study demonstrates that the proposed method enables us to estimate replacement demand of new vehicles, number of end-of-life (EOL) vehicles arising from the aging of vehicles, volume of shredder scraps recovered from EOL vehicles, and volume of shredder scraps required to meet final consumption in the future.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)10-19
Number of pages10
JournalJournal of Industrial Ecology
Volume19
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2015 Feb 1

Keywords

  • Automobile
  • Industrial ecology
  • Product lifetime analysis
  • Replacement demand
  • Shredder scrap
  • Waste input-output analysis

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Environmental Science(all)
  • Social Sciences(all)

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