TY - GEN
T1 - First-best analysis of disaster evacuation based on normative behavior
AU - Kuwahara, Masao
AU - Oishi, Yukie
AU - Ohata, Takeshi
PY - 2018/1/1
Y1 - 2018/1/1
N2 - In designing an evacuation plan, the most uncertain aspect is the evacuation behaviors of people in the immediate aftermath of a natural disaster. This study, therefore, attempts to reduce behavioral uncertainty and proposes a first-best analysis assuming that all evacuees perfectly follow the best evacuation strategy, which can be said to be normative behavior. This first-best performance may not be practical or feasible, but it clearly shows the benchmark performance of evacuation planning. Such a benchmark is quite useful for understanding the relative performances of several more practical scenarios. It is shown that the first-best strategy is obtained by solving LP (Linear programming) in a time-dependent fashion. The method is then applied to the city of Ishinomaki, Japan, to confirm its computational feasibility.
AB - In designing an evacuation plan, the most uncertain aspect is the evacuation behaviors of people in the immediate aftermath of a natural disaster. This study, therefore, attempts to reduce behavioral uncertainty and proposes a first-best analysis assuming that all evacuees perfectly follow the best evacuation strategy, which can be said to be normative behavior. This first-best performance may not be practical or feasible, but it clearly shows the benchmark performance of evacuation planning. Such a benchmark is quite useful for understanding the relative performances of several more practical scenarios. It is shown that the first-best strategy is obtained by solving LP (Linear programming) in a time-dependent fashion. The method is then applied to the city of Ishinomaki, Japan, to confirm its computational feasibility.
KW - Dynamic network
KW - Evacuation operation
KW - Liner programming
KW - Normative models
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85050614123&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85050614123&partnerID=8YFLogxK
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:85050614123
T3 - Proceedings of the 21st International Conference of Hong Kong Society for Transportation Studies, HKSTS 2016 - Smart Transportation
SP - 466
EP - 476
BT - Proceedings of the 21st International Conference of Hong Kong Society for Transportation Studies, HKSTS 2016 - Smart Transportation
A2 - Wong, Allan Wing Gun
A2 - Wong, Simon Ho Fai
A2 - Leung, Gordon Lai Ming
PB - Hong Kong Society for Transportation Studies Limited
T2 - 21st International Conference of Hong Kong Society for Transportation Studies: Smart Transportation, HKSTS 2016
Y2 - 10 December 2016 through 12 December 2016
ER -