First-best analysis of disaster evacuation based on normative behavior

Masao Kuwahara, Yukie Oishi, Takeshi Ohata

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

In designing an evacuation plan, the most uncertain aspect is the evacuation behaviors of people in the immediate aftermath of a natural disaster. This study, therefore, attempts to reduce behavioral uncertainty and proposes a first-best analysis assuming that all evacuees perfectly follow the best evacuation strategy, which can be said to be normative behavior. This first-best performance may not be practical or feasible, but it clearly shows the benchmark performance of evacuation planning. Such a benchmark is quite useful for understanding the relative performances of several more practical scenarios. It is shown that the first-best strategy is obtained by solving LP (Linear programming) in a time-dependent fashion. The method is then applied to the city of Ishinomaki, Japan, to confirm its computational feasibility.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 21st International Conference of Hong Kong Society for Transportation Studies, HKSTS 2016 - Smart Transportation
EditorsAllan Wing Gun Wong, Simon Ho Fai Wong, Gordon Lai Ming Leung
PublisherHong Kong Society for Transportation Studies Limited
Pages466-476
Number of pages11
ISBN (Electronic)9789881581457
Publication statusPublished - 2018 Jan 1
Event21st International Conference of Hong Kong Society for Transportation Studies: Smart Transportation, HKSTS 2016 - Hong Kong, Hong Kong
Duration: 2016 Dec 102016 Dec 12

Publication series

NameProceedings of the 21st International Conference of Hong Kong Society for Transportation Studies, HKSTS 2016 - Smart Transportation

Other

Other21st International Conference of Hong Kong Society for Transportation Studies: Smart Transportation, HKSTS 2016
CountryHong Kong
CityHong Kong
Period16/12/1016/12/12

Keywords

  • Dynamic network
  • Evacuation operation
  • Liner programming
  • Normative models

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Transportation

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