Evolution and future of the Lusi mud eruption inferred from ground deformation

M. L. Rudolph, M. Shirzaei, M. Manga, Y. Fukushima

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

28 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The ongoing eruption of the Lusi mud volcano in East Java, Indonesia offers the unprecedented opportunity to study a large eruption from its beginning to its eventual end. We use new observations of ground deformation obtained from multitemporal interferometric analysis of L-band synthetic aperture radar data to show that Lusi will stop erupting much sooner than previously anticipated. Using principal component analysis, we find that the rate of ground deformation, and by implication, pressure in the mud source region, has been decaying exponentially with an e-folding time scale of 2.1 ± 0.4 years. We anticipate that discharge will decrease to 10% of the present rate in 5 years. Key Points We measure ground deformation near Lusi using InSAR The rate of ground deformation is decreasing We anticipate that the eruption rate will decrease tenfold in 5 years.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1089-1092
Number of pages4
JournalGeophysical Research Letters
Volume40
Issue number6
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2013 Mar 28
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Lusi
  • deformation
  • longevity

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Geophysics
  • Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)

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