Evaluation of the travel time reliability of an urban road network; an evolutionary game theory and MCMC approach

Yuki Shittaka, Takeshi Nagae

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

This paper proposes a novel methodology for evaluating the travel time reliability of an urban road network using latest advances in the evolutionary game theory and MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo). Our proposed method has the following notable features: (i) it obtains a stationary distribution of traffic flow patterns which stems from a stochastic day-to-day dynamics of a population with rational users; (ii) this distribution is consistent with the traditional SUE (stochastic user equilibrium) in terms of traffic flow; and (iii) it can estimate the 95 percentile of travel time of each OD pair for a practical size network. In this paper, we provide a numerical example using Sioux-Falls network.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 21st International Conference of Hong Kong Society for Transportation Studies, HKSTS 2016 - Smart Transportation
EditorsAllan Wing Gun Wong, Simon Ho Fai Wong, Gordon Lai Ming Leung
PublisherHong Kong Society for Transportation Studies Limited
Pages495-501
Number of pages7
ISBN (Electronic)9789881581457
Publication statusPublished - 2018 Jan 1
Event21st International Conference of Hong Kong Society for Transportation Studies: Smart Transportation, HKSTS 2016 - Hong Kong, Hong Kong
Duration: 2016 Dec 102016 Dec 12

Publication series

NameProceedings of the 21st International Conference of Hong Kong Society for Transportation Studies, HKSTS 2016 - Smart Transportation

Other

Other21st International Conference of Hong Kong Society for Transportation Studies: Smart Transportation, HKSTS 2016
CountryHong Kong
CityHong Kong
Period16/12/1016/12/12

Keywords

  • Evolutionary game theory
  • MCMC
  • Stochastic day-to-day dynamics
  • Stochastic user equilibrium
  • Travel time reliability

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Transportation

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