Development of calibrated tsunami evacuation models through real-world collected data: The case study of Coquimbo-La Serena, Chile

Jorge León, Erick Mas, Patricio A. Catalán, Luis Moya, Alejandra Gubler, Shunichi Koshimura, Rodrigo Cienfuegos

Research output: Contribution to journalConference articlepeer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

Evacuation is considered the most important and effective method to save human lives in case of a tsunami. In recent years, significant efforts have been carried out to examine evacuation through computer-based models; nevertheless, challenges remain on examining the accuracy of these models in simulating real-world populations’ behavior. Along these lines, this paper uses a large call detail records (CDR) database to examine populations’ behaviors during a Mw 6.7 earthquake and tsunami evacuation in Coquimbo-La Serena, Chile, on January 19, 2019, and compare its outcomes with an agent-based model for the same case study. Results show partial correspondences between the model and the real-world data. While cell phone users’ rapid response to the emergency resembles the model’s assumption of rapid departures (alongside the rough evacuation direction), the evacuation rate of people in vulnerable areas significantly differs from the ‘total compliance’ (i.e. 100% evacuation rate) assumption of the model, which might lead to large human casualties in case of a real emergency.

Original languageEnglish
Article number012005
JournalIOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science
Volume630
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2021 Jan 12
Event12th ACEH International Workshop on Sustainable Tsunami Disaster Recovery: Sharing Experience, Knowledge and Culture 2019, AIWEST-DR 2019 - Tohoku, Japan
Duration: 2019 Nov 72019 Nov 8

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Environmental Science(all)
  • Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)

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