Development of an energy-economic model with endogenous technological progress and feasibility study of CCS systems

Tomoya Kusunoki, Takaaki Furubayashi, Toshihiko Nakata, Takafumi Usui

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

The main objective of this research is to develop a bottom-up energy-economic model considering endogenous technological development. The designed model analyzes the feasibility of CCS technologies in the Japanese electricity market to derive an optimum carbon reduction scenario. Two factors, a learning curve based on learning-by-doing and public R&D investment, precede technological progress. The analysis is calculated with a set of scenarios, which is based on alternative assumptions for technological characteristics: chemical and physical carbon absorptive technology. From modeling estimation, we conclude that technological progress reduces the generation costs of conversion technologies with CCS, as a CCS system acquires an additional unit of installation. Generation cost with chemical absorption remarkably reduces its marginal unit cost through a learning mechanism. The supply fraction from a gas-fired power plant increases over the analytical time period. The introduction of CCS reduces carbon emission level 17% compared to the baseline scenario in 2050. Technological progress has little impact on the total system costs; however, learning-by-doing pushes the introduction of CCS into the market rather than into a R&D activity. Research and development efforts in the private sector or knowledge spillover are not modeled in the study; however, they have the potential to contribute to the mitigation of carbon emission as well.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)332-351
Number of pages20
JournalHeat Transfer - Asian Research
Volume43
Issue number4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2014 Jun

Keywords

  • Energy models
  • Energy system analysis
  • Energy use

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Condensed Matter Physics
  • Fluid Flow and Transfer Processes

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