Detecting latitudinal and altitudinal expansion of invasive bamboo Phyllostachys edulis and Phyllostachys bambusoides (Poaceae) in Japan to project potential habitats under 1.5°C–4.0°C global warming

Kohei Takenaka Takano, Kenshi Hibino, Ayaka Numata, Michio Oguro, Masahiro Aiba, Hideo Shiogama, Izuru Takayabu, Tohru Nakashizuka

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    10 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    Rapid expansion of exotic bamboos has lowered species diversity in Japan's ecosystems by hampering native plant growth. The invasive potential of bamboo, facilitated by global warming, may also affect other countries with developing bamboo industries. We examined past (1975–1980) and recent (2012) distributions of major exotic bamboos (Phyllostachys edulis and P. bambusoides) in areas adjacent to 145 weather stations in central and northern Japan. Bamboo stands have been established at 17 sites along the latitudinal and altitudinal distributional limit during the last three decades. Ecological niche modeling indicated that temperature had a strong influence on bamboo distribution. Using mean annual temperature and sun radiation data, we reproduced bamboo distribution (accuracy = 0.93 and AUC (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) = 0.92). These results infer that exotic bamboo distribution has shifted northward and upslope, in association with recent climate warming. Then, we simulated future climate data and projected the climate change impact on the potential habitat distribution of invasive bamboos under different temperature increases (i.e., 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 3.0°C, and 4.0°C) relative to the preindustrial period. Potential habitats in central and northern Japan were estimated to increase from 35% under the current climate (1980–2000) to 46%–48%, 51%–54%, 61%–67%, and 77%–83% under 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 3.0°C, and 4.0°C warming levels, respectively. These infer that the risk areas can increase by 1.3 times even under a 1.5°C scenario and expand by 2.3 times under a 4.0°C scenario. For sustainable ecosystem management, both mitigation and adaptation are necessary: bamboo planting must be carefully monitored in predicted potential habitats, which covers most of Japan.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)9848-9859
    Number of pages12
    JournalEcology and Evolution
    Volume7
    Issue number23
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2017 Dec

    Keywords

    • RCP8.5 scenario
    • The Paris Agreement
    • bioclimatic envelope modeling
    • invasive plants
    • non-hydrostatic regional climate model (NHRCM)
    • species distribution modeling

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
    • Ecology
    • Nature and Landscape Conservation

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