TY - JOUR
T1 - Criminal prosecution and physician supply
AU - Morita, Hatsuru
N1 - Funding Information:
The earlier version of this paper is benefitted from many helpful comments by Yuko Akitsuki, seminar participants at University of Tokyo, Kagawa University, Tohoku University, the Workshop on the Frontiers of Statistical Analysis and Formal Theory of Political Science, CELS 2015, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, CELSE 2016, and Auckland Law School, and anonymous referees. The research is supported by a grant-in-aid from Japan Society for the Promotion of Science [grant number 16H03564 ].
Publisher Copyright:
© 2018 Elsevier Inc.
Copyright:
Copyright 2018 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
PY - 2018/9
Y1 - 2018/9
N2 - While there are many evidences of the effect of medical malpractice tort, research on the effect of medical malpractice criminal sanctions are scarce. This paper tries to identify the causal effect of criminal prosecution utilizing exogenous variations over the likelihood of criminal prosecution. In 2004, a medical accident occurred in Fukushima prefecture, Japan and an obstetrician was prosecuted one year after. This prosecution exogenously changed the likelihood of criminal prosecution in Fukushima prefecture. Using difference-in-differences and synthetic control approach, we estimate the causal effect of criminal prosecution. The prosecution decreased the number of obstetricians by 13% and some of them changed their business to gynecology, which involves lower risk. However, the effect is concentrated on obstetricians, not all physicians. While the relatively weak estimates of tort liability in the literature might suggest strengthening the present sanctions, we need to be cautious about such policy. In addition, the paper shows that the sentence of acquittal did not resolve the effect caused by the initial prosecution. This illuminates the importance of criminal prosecution itself and its social sanctions, not subsequent criminal sanctions. It also highlights the importance of risk perception of physicians.
AB - While there are many evidences of the effect of medical malpractice tort, research on the effect of medical malpractice criminal sanctions are scarce. This paper tries to identify the causal effect of criminal prosecution utilizing exogenous variations over the likelihood of criminal prosecution. In 2004, a medical accident occurred in Fukushima prefecture, Japan and an obstetrician was prosecuted one year after. This prosecution exogenously changed the likelihood of criminal prosecution in Fukushima prefecture. Using difference-in-differences and synthetic control approach, we estimate the causal effect of criminal prosecution. The prosecution decreased the number of obstetricians by 13% and some of them changed their business to gynecology, which involves lower risk. However, the effect is concentrated on obstetricians, not all physicians. While the relatively weak estimates of tort liability in the literature might suggest strengthening the present sanctions, we need to be cautious about such policy. In addition, the paper shows that the sentence of acquittal did not resolve the effect caused by the initial prosecution. This illuminates the importance of criminal prosecution itself and its social sanctions, not subsequent criminal sanctions. It also highlights the importance of risk perception of physicians.
KW - Criminal prosecution
KW - Medical malpractice
KW - Physician supply
KW - Social sanction
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U2 - 10.1016/j.irle.2018.02.002
DO - 10.1016/j.irle.2018.02.002
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85042390681
VL - 55
SP - 1
EP - 11
JO - International Review of Law and Economics
JF - International Review of Law and Economics
SN - 0144-8188
ER -