Coulomb pre-stress and fault bends are ignored yet vital factors for earthquake triggering and hazard

Z. K. Mildon, G. P. Roberts, J. P. Faure Walker, S. Toda

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

    17 Citations (Scopus)


    Successive locations of individual large earthquakes (Mw > 5.5) over years to centuries can be difficult to explain with simple Coulomb stress transfer (CST) because it is common for seismicity to circumvent nearest-neighbour along-strike faults where coseismic CST is greatest. We demonstrate that Coulomb pre-stress (the cumulative CST from multiple earthquakes and interseismic loading on non-planar faults) may explain this, evidenced by study of a 667-year historical record of earthquakes in central Italy. Heterogeneity in Coulomb pre-stresses across the fault system is >±50 bars, whereas coseismic CST is <±2 bars, so the latter will rarely overwhelm the former, explaining why historical earthquakes rarely rupture nearest neighbor faults. However, earthquakes do tend to occur where the cumulative coseismic and interseismic CST is positive, although there are notable examples where earthquake propagate across negatively stressed portions of faults. Hence Coulomb pre-stress calculated for non-planar faults is an ignored yet vital factor for earthquake triggering.

    Original languageEnglish
    Article number2744
    JournalNature communications
    Issue number1
    Publication statusPublished - 2019 Dec 1

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • Chemistry(all)
    • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
    • Physics and Astronomy(all)


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