TY - JOUR
T1 - Cost-benefit analysis of adaptation to beach loss due to climate change in Japan
AU - Nakajima, Kazunori
AU - Sakamoto, Naoki
AU - Udo, Keiko
AU - Takeda, Yuriko
AU - Ohno, Eiji
AU - Morisugi, Masafumi
AU - Mori, Ryuta
N1 - Funding Information:
Funding: This research was funded in part by the Social Implementation Program on Climate Change Adaptation Technology (SI-CAT), the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), Japan, and by the JSPS KAKENHI Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C), grant number JP19K12448.
Funding Information:
Acknowledgments: The authors would like to thank the SI-CAT and JSPS KAKENHI for their generous financial support.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 by the authors.
PY - 2020/9
Y1 - 2020/9
N2 - To measure economic effects of changes in environmental quality caused by climate change in Japan, we estimate beach loss damage costs in Japan and in each prefecture and evaluate the economic effectiveness of hypothetical adaptation measures to restore sandy beaches. For analyses, we use a computable general equilibrium model (CGE) that integrates a utility function with environmental quality factors as an independent variable derived from a recreation demand function in a travel cost method (TCM). We use future projections of beach loss rates in 2081-2100 based on ensemble-mean regional sea-level rise (SLR) for four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCPs) scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5). The main findings of our study are presented as follows. (1) In 2081-2100, beach loss damage costs were estimated respectively as 398.54 million USD per year for RCP2.6, 468.96 (m. USD/year) for RCP4.5, 494.09 (m. USD/year) for RCP6.0, and 654.63 (m. USD/year) for RCP8.5. (2) For all RCPs, six prefectures for which the cost-benefit ratio exceeds 1.0 were Kanagawa, Osaka, Hyogo, Hiroshima, Saga, and Kumamoto. Our hypothetical adaptationmeasure of an artificial beach enhancement is expected to be quite effective as a public works project in these prefectures.
AB - To measure economic effects of changes in environmental quality caused by climate change in Japan, we estimate beach loss damage costs in Japan and in each prefecture and evaluate the economic effectiveness of hypothetical adaptation measures to restore sandy beaches. For analyses, we use a computable general equilibrium model (CGE) that integrates a utility function with environmental quality factors as an independent variable derived from a recreation demand function in a travel cost method (TCM). We use future projections of beach loss rates in 2081-2100 based on ensemble-mean regional sea-level rise (SLR) for four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCPs) scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5). The main findings of our study are presented as follows. (1) In 2081-2100, beach loss damage costs were estimated respectively as 398.54 million USD per year for RCP2.6, 468.96 (m. USD/year) for RCP4.5, 494.09 (m. USD/year) for RCP6.0, and 654.63 (m. USD/year) for RCP8.5. (2) For all RCPs, six prefectures for which the cost-benefit ratio exceeds 1.0 were Kanagawa, Osaka, Hyogo, Hiroshima, Saga, and Kumamoto. Our hypothetical adaptationmeasure of an artificial beach enhancement is expected to be quite effective as a public works project in these prefectures.
KW - Adaptation
KW - Beach loss
KW - Climate change
KW - Computable general equilibrium model
KW - Cost benefit analysis
KW - Travel cost method
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U2 - 10.3390/JMSE8090715
DO - 10.3390/JMSE8090715
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85092226913
SN - 2077-1312
VL - 8
JO - Journal of Marine Science and Engineering
JF - Journal of Marine Science and Engineering
IS - 9
M1 - 715
ER -
