Abstract
Quantitative microbial risk assessment was used to predict the likelihood and spatial organization of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission in a commercial aircraft. Passenger exposure was predicted via a multizone Markov model in four scenarios: seated or moving infectious passengers and with or without filtration of recirculated cabin air. The traditional exponential (k = 1) and a new exponential (k = 0.0218) dose-response function were used to compute infection risk. Emission variability was included by Monte Carlo simulation. Infection risks were higher nearer and aft of the source; steady state airborne concentration levels were not attained. Expected incidence was low to moderate, with the central 95% ranging from 10-6 to 10 -1 per 169 passengers in the four scenarios. Emission rates used were low compared to measurements from active TB patients in wards, thus a "superspreader" emitting 44 quanta/h could produce 6.2 cases or more under these scenarios. Use of respiratory protection by the infectious source and/or susceptible passengers reduced infection incidence up to one order of magnitude.
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 355-365 |
Number of pages | 11 |
Journal | Risk Analysis |
Volume | 29 |
Issue number | 3 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 2009 Mar 1 |
Keywords
- Dose-response assessment
- Environmental exposure
- Immunologic
- Risk assessment
- Risk management
- Tuberculosis
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality
- Physiology (medical)