Application of the ETAS seismostatistical model to microseismicity from geothermal fields

Tai Eto, Hiroshi Asanuma, Masaho Adachi, Kazuhiro Saeki, Kengo Aoyama, Hitoshi Ozeki, Yusuke Mukuhira, Markus Har̈ing

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

2 Citations (Scopus)


The occurrence of induced seismicity in the form of felt earthquakes has been recognized as one of the critical environmental burdens associated with recent geothermal development. For this reason, research into enabling technologies for risk assessment of larger magnitude induced events has taken on an increased priority. In this study, we have applied a seismostatistical modeling method to microseismic data collected at two geothermal fields and have investigated its feasibility for risk assessment. Here we have applied the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model (Ogata, 1988), which has been widely used in the area of natural seismology, as a first step in this geothermal earthquake risk assessment study. The microseismicity observed at Yanaizu-Nishiyama, one of the largest hydrothermal geothermal fields in Japan, has been successfully modeled with ETAS. Induced seismicity at the Basel EGS site in Switzerland was also modeled with ETAS, in this case using short moving time windows since modeling for the whole seismically active period was unsuccessful. Our study suggests that one of the parameters in the ETAS model, which has previously been interpreted to represent the occurrence rate of events triggered by external forcing (Hainzl and Ogata, 2005), can in both our cases be correlated with the treatment/stimulation injection rate into each reservoir. Our preliminary results demonstrate the feasibility of seismostatistical modeling in assessing the risks of felt earthquakes associated with various human operations in geothermal reservoirs, although further investigation and modeling of behavior of induced seismicity is required.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationGeothermal Resources Council Annual Meeting, GRC 2013
Subtitle of host publicationA Global Resource, from Larderello to Las Vegas
Number of pages5
EditionPART 1
Publication statusPublished - 2013 Dec 1
EventGeothermal Resources Council Annual Meeting: A Global Resource, from Larderello to Las Vegas, GRC 2013 - Las Vegas, NV, United States
Duration: 2013 Sep 292013 Oct 2

Publication series

NameTransactions - Geothermal Resources Council
NumberPART 1
ISSN (Print)0193-5933


OtherGeothermal Resources Council Annual Meeting: A Global Resource, from Larderello to Las Vegas, GRC 2013
Country/TerritoryUnited States
CityLas Vegas, NV


  • EGS
  • ETAS model
  • Induced seismicity
  • Microseismicity
  • Seismostatistic
  • Stimulation

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
  • Energy Engineering and Power Technology
  • Geophysics


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