Analysis on the fluctuation of traffic demand and the quantification of the fluctuation

Jinyoung Kim, Masao Kuwahara, Takehiko Daito

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaperpeer-review


In order for suitable traffic operation and management, traffic demand of road network must be explored. But the traffic volume is hard to define because it keeps changing. This means that we need to understand fluctuation of traffic demand as well. If the traffic demand fluctuation is utilized for traffic implement, the fluctuation has to be quantified in any case. In this study, we investigate fluctuation of traffic demand according to external factors and discover an index to represent the fluctuation as a fixed quantity using observed Electronic Toll Collection (ETC) data. The flow of this study is like this: 1) to suggest indices to assess traffic demand fluctuation, 2) to verify stability of the indices value on an external factor to influences on the fluctuation statistically and 3) to explore a method to quantify the fluctuation using the indices. Furthermore, we suggest a method to quantify the traffic demand fluctuation using 1) the distribution of an index, 2) the representative value of an index and 3) the combination of 1) and 2). The results of this study could be appropriate data not only to understand the traffic flow on road network in consideration of fluctuation but also to forecast network flow. Moreover, they are expected to be reliable information to implement the efficient traffic management.

Original languageEnglish
Publication statusPublished - 2012 Jan 1
Event19th Intelligent Transport Systems World Congress, ITS 2012 - Vienna, Austria
Duration: 2012 Oct 222012 Oct 26


Other19th Intelligent Transport Systems World Congress, ITS 2012


  • ETC data
  • Forecast
  • Traffic demand fluctuation

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Computer Networks and Communications
  • Computer Science Applications
  • Control and Systems Engineering
  • Electrical and Electronic Engineering
  • Mechanical Engineering
  • Transportation


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