Analysis of traffic state during a heavy rain disaster using probe data

Shogo Umeda, Yosuke Kawasaki, Masao Kuwahara

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

4 Citations (Scopus)


In this study, the traffic state of a commercial vehicle was analyzed from a macroscopic viewpoint by using the probe data of a commercial vehicle in the Shikoku region during a period of heavy rain that occurred in western Japan in July, 2018. A method is proposed to calculate indexes, such as the detour rate and reduction in the number of trips, through an analysis of a trip at each origin-destination (OD) and extracting the route of a detouring vehicle during a disaster by using the results of the calculation. Finally, a method for the early detection of abnormalities, which involves paying attention to U-turn action during traffic disturbances is proposed. The influence of heavy rain on a commercial vehicle was evaluated quantitatively by analyzing the probe data of the vehicle during a disaster period caused by heavy rain. Specifically, analysis was performed on the number of passing commercial vehicles before and after the occurrence of a disaster, changes in running speed, route changes at each OD, and the vehicle trajectory around a regulated area. From the results of the analysis, it was possible to grasp the macroscopic traffic state, OD influenced by the traffic restriction, route in use for the OD during a normal time period, and an alternate route (detour ac-tion) during the disaster time period. With the method for the early detection of abnormalities at the time of a traffic disturbance, which pays close attention to U-turn action, a U-turn after the traffic regulation can be detected; however, it was confirmed that there is a problem in detecting timing and the application range.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)466-477
Number of pages12
JournalJournal of Disaster Research
Issue number3
Publication statusPublished - 2019 Mar


  • Heavy rain
  • Natural disasters
  • Probe data
  • Traffic analysis

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality
  • Engineering (miscellaneous)


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