An integrated analysis of host- and tumor-derived markers for predicting high-grade dysplasia and associated invasive carcinoma of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas

Purpose: To clarify the usefulness of cancer-related inflammation, hypermetabolism, and subsequent host malnutrition biomarkers for predicting the histological grades of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas (IPMNs). Methods: The systemic immune-inflammation index (SII), prognostic nutritional index (PNI), and maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax) on fluorodeoxyglucose-positron emission tomography were compared across 171 resected IPMN cases of different histological grades. The diagnostic performance of each marker and of their combinations for predicting IPMN with high-grade dysplasia (HGD)/associated invasive carcinoma (INV) was also tested. Results: Of the 171 IPMNs, the IPMN cases with HGD showed significantly higher values of SII (median 406 vs. 340; P = 0.041) and SUVmax (median 2.5 vs. 2.0; P = 0.001) than those with low-grade dysplasia (LGD). On a multivariate analysis, the SII and SUVmax were both independent markers for predicting HGD/INV. A combination analysis including the tumor- and host-derived markers in combination with imaging findings showed an improved diagnostic performance (area under the curve 0.824; sensitivity 75.9%; specificity 80.0%). Conclusions: The combination of multiple markers of host-derived inflammation and tumor-derived focal hypermetabolism can serve as a predictor for the presence of HGD/INV.