A study of pretreatment nomograms to predict pathological stage and biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy for clinically resectable prostate cancer in Japanese Men

Shin Egawa, Kazuho Suyama, Yoichi Arai, Kazumasa Matsumoto, Chotatsu Tsukayama, Sadahito Kuwao, Shiro Baba

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

27 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background: Accurate pretreatment identification of the risks that prostate cancer has extended beyond the gland and that it will recur would significantly influence practice patterns. Preoperative nomograms to predict such risks have not been developed for the oriental male population. Methods: Construction of nomograms to predict preoperatively pathological outcome and early biochemical failure following radical prostatectomy in Japanese males was based on logistic regression analysis, with predicted probabilities and 95% confidence intervals for the final model being obtained by repeating the analysis on 1000 bootstrap samples from the original cohort. Results: Prostate-specific antigen level, clinical stage and biopsy Gleason score contributed significantly to the prediction of pathological stage and of biochemical failure in the univariate analysis (p < 0.001). Combined use of these three variables predicted these treatment outcomes better than any single variable (p < 0.001). Nomograms combining these three variables to predict final pathological findings and early biochemical failure were then developed. The medians and 95% confidence intervals of the predicted probabilities are presented in the nomograms. Conclusions: This information enables clinicians to use their nomograms when counseling Japanese patients, leading to more informed treatment decisions and helping to identify those with a high risk of early biochemical failure. The nomograms may also be used to assure comparability of different treatment modalities in investigational trials.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)74-81
Number of pages8
JournalJapanese journal of clinical oncology
Volume31
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2001

Keywords

  • Biochemical failure
  • Nomogram
  • Pathological stage
  • Prostate cancer
  • Radical prostatectomy

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Oncology
  • Radiology Nuclear Medicine and imaging
  • Cancer Research

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