A Simulation Model for Forecasting Urban Vulnerability to Earthquake Disasters in Lima, Peru: “LIMA-UVEQ”

Hideki Kaji, Osamu Murao, Masaki Fujioka, Hidehiko Kanegae, Fumio Yamazaki, Miguel Estrada, Alberto Bisbal

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

    4 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    Looking ahead ten or twenty years, the urban population will inevitably increase in the Lima Metropolitan Area (LMA) of Peru. Various urban development projects will naturally be implemented in order to accommodate the additional population, and this could increase vulnerability to disasters from earthquakes if no corrective actions are taken. A computer simulation model termed LIMA-UVEQ was developed so that we could forecast the region’s vulnerability to earthquake disasters over the next twenty years. Two cases were evaluated: one where some earthquake damage mitigationmeasures are incorporated with urban development projects and another where no such measures are implemented. With the modeling results, we then try to propose an appropriate policy mix that can be implemented in line with urban growth.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)1069-1077
    Number of pages9
    JournalJournal of Disaster Research
    Volume9
    Issue number6
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2014 Dec 1

    Keywords

    • Computer simulation
    • Land use
    • Lima Metropolitan Area
    • Population growth
    • Vulnerability

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality
    • Engineering (miscellaneous)

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