A model for epidemic dynamics in a community with visitor subpopulation

Emmanuel J. Dansu, Hiromi Seno

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

With a five dimensional system of ordinary differential equations based on the SIR and SIS models, we consider the dynamics of epidemics in a community which consists of residents and short-stay visitors. Taking different viewpoints to consider public health policies to control the disease, we derive different basic reproduction numbers and clarify their common/different mathematical natures so as to understand their meanings in the dynamics of the epidemic. From our analyses, the short-stay visitor subpopulation could become significant in determining the fate of diseases in the community. Furthermore, our arguments demonstrate that it is necessary to choose one variant of basic reproduction number in order to formulate appropriate public health policies.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)115-127
Number of pages13
JournalJournal of Theoretical Biology
Volume478
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2019 Oct 7

Keywords

  • Basic reproduction number
  • Epidemic dynamics
  • Mathematical model
  • Ordinary differential equations
  • Public health

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Statistics and Probability
  • Modelling and Simulation
  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
  • Immunology and Microbiology(all)
  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)
  • Applied Mathematics

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