“3-Day Surprise Question” to predict prognosis of advanced cancer patients with impending death: Multicenter prospective observational study

Tomoo Ikari, Yusuke Hiratsuka, Takuhiro Yamaguchi, Isseki Maeda, Masanori Mori, Yu Uneno, Tomohiko Taniyama, Yosuke Matsuda, Kiyofumi Oya, Keita Tagami, Akira Inoue

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Background: The study aimed to clarify the efficacy of the “3-Day Surprise Question (3DSQ)” in predicting the prognosis for advanced cancer patients with impending death. Patients and Methods: This study was a part of multicenter prospective observational study which investigated the dying process in advanced cancer patients in Japan. For patients with a Palliative Performance Scale ≤20, the 3DSQ “Would I be surprised if this patient died in the next 3 days?” was answered by their physicians. In addition to the sensitivity and specificity of the 3DSQ, the characteristics of patients who survived longer than expected were examined via multivariate analysis. Results: Among the 1896 patients enrolled, 1411 were evaluated. Among 1179 (83.6%) patients who were classified into the “Not surprised” group, 636 patients died within 3 days. Among 232 (16.4%) patients of “Yes surprised” group, 194 patients lived longer than 3 days. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of the 3DSQ were 94.3% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 92.7% to 95.8%), 26.3% (95% CI: 24.8% to 27.6%), 53.9% (95% CI: 53.0% to 54.7%), and 83.6% (95% CI: 78.7% to 87.7%), respectively. Multivariate analysis showed palpable radial artery, absent respiration with mandibular movement, SpO2 ≥ 90%, opioid administration, and no continuous deep sedation as characteristics of patients who lived longer than expected. Conclusions: The 3-Day Surprise Question can be a useful screening tool to identify advanced cancer patients with impending death.

Original languageEnglish
JournalCancer medicine
DOIs
Publication statusAccepted/In press - 2020

Keywords

  • advanced cancer
  • end-of-life care
  • impending death
  • predict prognosis
  • surprise question

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Oncology
  • Radiology Nuclear Medicine and imaging
  • Cancer Research

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